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“The attack shows that Shabaab under Godane is a force to be reckoned with and a staunch ally of al-Qaeda.”
ADDIS ABABA , Sep 28 2013 (IPS) - Strong action now expected against the al-Shabaab group may well end up strengthening the group rather than weakening it, local people fear. The
extremist group is suspected of involvement in the attack on the Westgate mall in Nairobi.
In the new round of confrontation expected, many people fear they will suffer most. “As always when these attacks happen, we are the ones who end up suffering,” a 23-year-old student who gave his name only as Mohammed told IPS on phone from Somali capital Mogadishu. “When the politicians and armies fight, our suffering is pushed aside.”
The Islamist group had been on the back foot in Somalia for some time. It faced dwindling support in recent years from an increasing disenfranchised diaspora and from a Somali population growing
increasingly tired of violence.
Several signs have emerged of a weakening of the group. In recent months, al-Shabaab was kicked out of Bakara Market and Kismayo port in Somalia. These were two strategic locations for the group, and huge sources of their income.Despite an increase in the murder of journalists and bombings in the capital, a serious attack on the national courts and on the UNDP compound in Mogadishu, many analysts had been pointing to a diminishing al-Shabaab. The Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) had been heralded for bringing in a new era of stability for Somalia which saw diaspora returning and restoration of a certain degree of normality.
“Support for al-Shabaab in Somalia is low,” Ahmed Soliman, Somalia expert at the London-based Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House) told IPS. “Their insurgent tactics targeting innocent civilians gain little support from Somalis who suffer from their actions or Kenyan ethnic-Somalis, who have to endure the negative consequences of being associated with this violence.”
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Smoke above Westgate Mall
An attack in Somali capital Mogadishu suspected to have been carried out by Al-Shabaab. Credit: IPS.
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